From sci-fi to reality: Humanoid robots could soon be as big as auto industry
Development of humanoid robots is picking up pace, and if current trajectories hold, robotics manufacturers could reach revenues of $300 billion by 2035, or in more optimistic scenarios, up to $750 billion. A new report from Roland Berger found that running costs could be as low as $2 per hour, making humanoid robotics huge for competitiveness, growth, and tackling labor shortages.
The robotics industry is now at a turning point where humanoid robots are going from a prototype phase to industrial-scale rollout. As the tech and engineering behind these robots continues to advance, the market is likely to be worth trillions of dollars in the long term, a market size equivalent to the automotive industry.
By 2035, the market for body actuators alone could reach up to $79 billion, while compute and connectivity and perception, systems, energy and charging systems, and other essential parts could contribute more than $35 billion.
Though manufacturing, training, and maintaining humanoid robots is expected to cost in the tens of thousands of dollars, companies in a wide range of industries are set to win big on savings if they can incorporate robots into their businesses. Operating rates are far lower than human counterparts in industrial settings and robots could soon also be used for domestic tasks in the homes of private consumers.
A solution to the labor shortage?
The transition from science fiction to industrial reality is being driven by a convergence of technological maturity and structural labor deficits. In fact, working-age populations are expected to decline by as much as 22% in certain regions by 2050, creating a labor gap that traditional automation cannot solve.
Unlike fixed industrial arms, humanoid robots can operate within infrastructure designed for humans, performing varied tasks without requiring expensive facility redesigns. This flexibility is critical for high-variance tasks such as kitting, machine loading, and handling flexible materials like cables or hoses.
While some hardware like sensors and structural components are quite mature, the primary bottleneck in advanced robotics has now shifted to AI architecture and data strategy. Developers are now focusing on vision-language models and end-to-end learning to connect perception directly to action.
This software-centric approach allows robots to interpret complex environments and learn through zero-shot learning, which is the ability to handle tasks without explicit prior training. However, this shift creates a massive demand for proprietary, real-world data, which remains scarce and expensive to produce.
Advanced robotics industry players
Several industry leaders are currently competing to deploy the first generation of commercially viable humanoid robots into the global workforce. Tesla is making significant strides with its Optimus project, leveraging the company’s existing expertise in AI and battery technology to target mass production for factory environments.
A company called Figure is another major player, having recently demonstrated its hardware’s ability to perform autonomous tasks through a high-profile partnership with BMW. Meanwhile, Boston Dynamics remains a pioneer in the field with its new fully electric Atlas, which showcases the advanced mobility and fluid movement necessary for complex human-centric spaces.
While China is in the lead in general when it comes to robotics startups, Europe and North America, on the other hand, have focused far more on AI and software, as is clear by the fact that companies like OpenAI, Google, and others have been leading the AI race in recent years.
Indeed, two distinct ecosystems are currently emerging with different scaling strategies. The Western ecosystem, is pursuing an AI-first approach that prioritizes foundation models and generalist architectures. In contrast, the Chinese ecosystem is following a volume-led strategy, deploying robots into controlled workflows like logistics to drive down costs through sheer manufacturing scale.
The Roland Berger report notes that industrial deployment of humanoid robots has already begun and that now is the time for companies in the industry to secure their positions. Adoption will begin with target use cases as software improves and costs decline gradually.
"The key question is no longer whether humanoid robots will emerge as a viable technology, but how quickly they will scale – and which companies position themselves early enough to capture the opportunity," says Damien Dujacquier, managing partner at Roland Berger.
