Quantum computing reaches commercial turning point, McKinsey report finds

The era of quantum computing as a purely experimental technology may be coming to an end, according to a new report from McKinsey & Company. The firm’s 2026 Quantum Technology Monitor, finds that over 300 companies worldwide – including Airbus, JPMorgan Chase, and Boehringer Ingelheim – are now actively working with quantum technology vendors to address commercial challenges.

The report estimates that quantum computing could generate up to $2.7 trillion in economic value globally by 2035, spanning industries from chemicals and financial services to travel and logistics. Quantum computing companies generated more than $1 billion in revenue in 2025, a figure that could climb to $4.4 billion by 2028.

When it comes to industries that could generate huge amounts of value in the years to come from this technology, the energy and materials industries is uniquely positioned. Other industries forecasted to win big if quantum is leveraged appropriately: the financial industry, pharmaceuticals, travel, transport, and logistics.

A new frontier in computing

But what is quantum computing? Unlike standard computers that process data sequentially using binary bits restricted to 0 or 1, quantum computers leverage subatomic mechanics to use ‘qubits’ that can actually represent 0 and 1 simultaneously and are capable of processing complex calculations at vast speeds that have been, until now, impossible.

That raw computational power opens up new possibilities. Where a traditional computer might take thousands of years to work through every possible combination of a complex problem, a quantum machine can evaluate many solutions at once – making it particularly well-suited to tasks like simulating molecular behavior for drug discovery, optimizing vast logistics networks, or modeling the kind of intricate financial risk scenarios that involve hundreds of interconnected variables.

The technology is also seen as a potential breakthrough for AI, as quantum systems could dramatically enhance machine learning. Researchers and business leaders alike now view quantum computing not as a niche scientific curiosity, but as a force that could potentially reshape entire industries.

Private sector now more involved

The report found that companies are not just investing in this technology, they have now begun deploying it in practice by building teams, developing algorithms, and updating tech stacks in anticipation of quantum becoming a major factor in the not-so-distant future. That is a major step towards what has long seemed like a far-off future in which complex quantum technologies become part of daily business activity.

Among the more than 300 organizations now engaged with quantum computing, McKinsey & Company analyzed 162 in detail. It found that 72% of quantum computing activity is taking place at privately owned companies – a notable shift from just a few years ago, when public research institutions were the primary adopters. European companies account for 43% of the analyzed customers, ahead of the United States at 29% and Asia at 22%.

More investment than ever

Spending is also on the rise. One third of companies surveyed allocated more than $10 million to quantum computing in 2025, with 7% spending more than $50 million. Most of that money went toward developing specific use cases and building internal teams, rather than acquiring hardware outright. Private companies tend to access quantum systems through cloud providers, while public entities are more likely to purchase hardware directly.

Investor enthusiasm has grown sharply. According to McKinsey’s data, investment in quantum technology startups reached $12.6 billion in 2025 – more than six times the total recorded in 2024. That was driven mainly by capital markets (44%) and private funds (34%).

The report also notes a dramatic shift in who is providing the capital. In 2024, a third of investment came from governments and public institutions, but that share fell to just 3% in 2025 as private funds and capital markets took over. Despite that decrease, government investment has by no means been insignificant: Quantum stocks got a major boost last month when the US Department of Commerce announced that it would give out $2 billion in grants to several leading companies in the quantum sector.

Roughly 60% of 2025 investment was concentrated in the ten largest deals, a sign that valuations are rising and competition for top talent and infrastructure is intensifying. The year also saw significant consolidation, with American quantum hardware and software company IonQ acquiring five companies – including Oxford Ionics in a deal worth $1.1 billion – and Xanadu announcing plans to go public.

"Our research shows that quantum computing has reached a commercial tipping point. Early movers are beginning to map clear paths to generating real enterprise value from their quantum computing efforts," said McKinsey Partner Henning Soller.

"European companies are leading when it comes to advancing quantum computing and that 72% of quantum computing use is at companies that are majority-owned by private entities – a shift from just a few years ago when public-sector organizations such as research labs were front-runners in advancing quantum computing projects."

Europe is indeed emerging as the dominant force in adoption, despite lagging in recent years in other important tech like AI. Of the 162 companies McKinsey analyzed in detail, 43% were headquartered in Europe, compared to 29% in the United States and 22% in Asia. European firms are also leading the transition from pilot projects to fully embedded enterprise applications – a trajectory that positions the region ahead of its global peers as the technology moves closer to mainstream deployment.

How businesses can use quantum tech

The report points to three industries where quantum computing is gaining the most traction. In chemicals and life sciences, companies are using quantum systems to simulate molecular interactions, helping to prioritize drug compounds and advanced materials more efficiently than classical computing allows.

For organizations in travel, transport, and logistics, quantum algorithms are a super valuable solution for handling complex scheduling and routing problems embedded within broader classical systems.

Meanwhile in financial services, institutions are using quantum-enhanced models to better capture risk scenarios, while also preparing their security infrastructure for a future in which quantum machines could undermine existing encryption standards – a scenario researchers refer to as ‘Q-Day’.

Cybersecurity experts warn of what they call ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ attacks, where adversaries are already stealing encrypted data today with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computing becomes strong enough to break current encryption standards. That means that data considered perfectly secure now could become a liability years down the line.

New technologies often come with new cyber threats and, as with AI, the technology behind these new risks will need to also be a big part of the new defenses. In this case, it will be necessary to fight fire with fire – organizations that fail to develop quantum capabilities may quickly become more vulnerable.

The hybrid path forward

Despite the momentum, McKinsey cautions that near-term returns remain difficult to predict. Road maps from leading providers vary widely, and timelines for achieving fault-tolerant quantum systems are still uncertain. The most viable path forward, the report concludes, is a hybrid model in which quantum systems handle the most computationally demanding parts of a problem while classical systems and AI manage the rest.

"Quantum computing is still an emerging technology – but it is no longer one that business leaders can afford to ignore," said Soller.

"The risk of not acting now to begin piloting quantum computing projects is significant. With rapid advances in performance, quantum computing is at a tipping point where it could soon outperform classical systems by orders of magnitude—making pilots today critical for companies that don’t want to fall behind."