US projected to reach herd immunity by mid-summer

24 March 2021 2 min. read
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Management consultancy Oliver Wyman expects the US to reach the herd immunity threshold (71% exposed to Covid-19 or vaccinated) by mid-summer, according to the firm’s Pandemic Navigator modeling tool.

However, some states will reach heard immunity faster than others. New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Iowa will reach herd immunity first – between late May and early June – because they have had the highest levels of Covid infection to date, including detected and estimated undetected cases.

Maine and Hawaii, which have had among the lowest Covid incidence rates, will be in the last group of states to reach herd immunity, getting there sometime after August.

“Vaccinations will be critical for each state to reach herd immunity, especially for states with lower levels of Covid-19 infections to date,” said Ugur Koyluoglu, Oliver Wyman partner. “Despite having different guidelines on who qualifies to be vaccinated in each state, the pace of vaccination has been fast and accelerating across all states, which is good news and essential for herd immunity.”

Progress toward herd immunity by state under “optimistic” scenario

The US is currently vaccinating its population at a steady clip, administering more than 124 million vaccines to date – which amounts to 25% of the population receiving at least one dose and 13% being fully vaccinated. Israel and the UK have administered at least one dose to 58% and 43% of the population, respectively, according to data from the University of Oxford.

Oliver Wyman has been running its Pandemic Navigator tool throughout the crisis to provide visibility into Covid-19 hot spots and actionable insights to governments and businesses. The tool tracks and forecasts new, active, and cumulative Covid-19 cases in 90+ countries and sub-regions. Critically, the Pandemic Navigator also estimates undetected coronavirus cases.

The tool has also in recent months tracked and projected the number of effectively vaccinated individuals and the number of people expected to receive a vaccination in the future.